Home advantage is on the wane in the Premier League – Between the Lines

Turning your ground into a fortress has long been considered crucial but is playing at home really the advantage it once was?

In the last two weeks in the Premier League, only four out of 21 games have been won by the home side, a proportion of just 19 per cent. Manchester City, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa are the only teams to have won in front of their own fans in that period.

The list of teams struggling at home this season includes Spurs, who were beaten 4-1 by Arsenal on Sunday and have only won twice at home this season. They and Chelsea are among six sides averaging fewer points per game at home than away from home.

Chelsea's late 1-1 draw against Burnley on Saturday was the eighth home game out of 14 in which they have dropped points this season.

The overall home win rate of 42 per cent this season ranks as the fifth-lowest in Premier League history but the significance of home advantage has in fact been on the wane for over a century.

The graphic below shows the percentages of home wins, draws and away wins by season in the English top flight since the inception of the Football League in 1888. The trend is clear.

The home win rate reached a high of 65 per cent in 1895 but has followed a steady decline since, dropping by around a third to this season's rate of 42 per cent.

The rate of draws stood at just 12 per cent in 1890 before rising to a high of 32 per cent in 1973, but has declined in more recent years as the percentage of away wins has increased.

From a low of just 16 per cent in 1901, the away win rate in English football's top flight has increased to 31 per cent, with the upward trend having accelerated in the last decade.

During the Covid-hit 2020/21 season, when games were played without fans, the away win rate rose above the home win rate for the first time in history, at 40 per cent to 38 per cent.

So what's behind the continuing decline of home advantage?

Clubs have of course become better-equipped to deal with the challenges of playing away from home as infrastructure and facilities have improved over the course of history. Travel, while still an inconvenience, is far simpler and quicker in the modern age.

Developments in sports science, coaching and preparation have undoubtedly played a part too. The resources available to top-level clubs are exhaustive and continue to become more advanced, allowing them to better cope with the exertions of playing away.